Gold, long seen as a safe haven, may not shine as brightly in 2025. Experts from Quant Mutual Fund warn that gold price has “peaked out,” expecting a 12–15% correction in the near term. Morningstar’s Jon Mills goes further, projecting a sharp 38% drop in gold price over five years due to rising global supply and easing demand. Increased mining profits and recycling activity have expanded gold’s availability, while central banks are cooling their appetite—71% plan no increase or even a reduction in holdings. At the same time, persistently high real interest rates raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. Kotak Securities also notes that potential U.S. tariff moves and a limited rate cut cycle may restrict upside to just 8–10% in 2025.
Some analysts describe the current market as overcrowded, increasing the risk of a significant pullback in gold price. A small allocation (5–10%) for diversification might work but it may be unwise to chase recent highs, especially when more productive investment opportunities are available elsewhere.
| Reason | Expert Insights |
|---|---|
| Near-Term Overvaluation | 12–15% correction likely; 38% drop forecasted over 5 years (quant & Morningstar) |
| Rising Supply | Mining profits and recycling increasing global stockpile |
| Slowing Demand | Central bank buying plateauing; ETF flows may reverse |
If you want to explore other investment opportunities, please check this to know how RBI repo rate cut is going to unlock some investment opportunities.
References:
1. www.ft.com
2. www.economictimes.com
One thought on “Has the Gold Price Peaked? Analysts Warn of Looming Correction”